Analysis Paralysis

So .. almost four years and I am back here .. and absolutely for the same reason.
The WORLD CUP fever has finally caught up with me and now my mind has started making calculations.
Before it gets too confusing, I better make a note of it.

So its the second time that the WORLD CUP has traveled to Australia and traveled from India to Australia.
It was the 1992 edition of the cup when I understood the basic of the game and fell in love with it.
I am still in awe of that World Cup and I still feel it was the best of all the other editions.

The colored jersey, the round robin format The likes of Imran, Kapil and Botham, Young Sachin and Kambli, The South African team with Jonty Rhodes, New Zealand under Martin Crowe, and that amazing come back from Pakistan to win the cup... That tournament was amazing.

So again this time around the World Cup in Australia has again created lot of excitement and expectations.

I also feel, that this world cup is the most open world cup.
I feel  atleast 4 teams have the reasons to believe that they are the major contenders of the world cup

Let me 1st note down the 4 contenders that I feel have a good chance.

1. Australia 
2. New Zealand
3. South Africa 
4. India 

Australia and New Zealand are 2 sides in tremendous form and both are enjoying home advantage,
Both these sides are unbeatable at home.

England are the dark horse but their loss to Australia and New Zealand (just today) have made me keep them away from top 4.

I would like to believe that these 4 teams should be through to the Semi Finals atleast.

India is not the best suited team in these conditions. But Dhoni and Company know how to win in major tournaments.

They have finally managed to win something in Australia.
But its a victory against Pakistan. This was a big match and the way India played .. it seems that all the cogs are finally in the right spot. To win the World Cup you dont have to win all the matches. But you need to win the right matches.

Now, let us go to the groups and how each team is places

Pool A

• Australia
• New Zealand
• England
• Sri Lanka
• UAE
• Afghanistan

Pool B

• South Africa
• India 
• Pakistan
• West Indies
• Ireland
• Zimbabwe

As 4 teams from each group proceed to the QF, I think it is very easy to pick the 8 teams

• Australia
• New Zealand
• England 
• Sri Lanka  
• South Africa 
• India
• Pakistan
• West Indies

Ireland might be the dark horse. that might trip over WI. But I dont think wither of the team will advance to the semis

Now, the format of the QF is such that A1 playes B4, A2 plays B3, A3 playes B2 and A4 plays B1.

So, to advance to the semi stage, India should be strategically placed in the B group so that it should not find a tough opponent in semis itself. 

It might be advised that India stay away from NZ and Australia which I feel will take the spots A1 and A2

So India should place themselves at B1 or B2 to avoid these 1 teams

Now, the only one QTR Final match which is in New Zealand is the A4 vs B1 match. 

The form that England have shown right now, there are great chances that they might be the A$ team.

However, I wont want India to face Eng in NZ. New Zealand is England minus big grounds. 

Between England and SL, I would prefer India face SL in Australia.

On the other hand the 3rd QTR FINAL is in Adelaide. I would prefer India play in Adelaide than in Wellington. 

Hence I would prefer India to be places second in the group rather than on top.

Facing either England or Sri Lanka at Adelaide should not be a problem to India.

India bt Pakistan in the 1st match is like a huge monkey off the back. 

I think whenever India bt Pak in World Cup the money just grows bigger. 6-0 is a tremendous record and whenever the next captain walks in for the toll in IND VS PAK world cup game he will have that much more pressure. 

The good thing about that match was the important players in the line up scores runs and got wickets.

I am so doubtful about Dhawans capability as an opener, that every time he scores, I doubt fixing.

But he has scored heavily in important matches and I just hope he has found his confidence back.

Rohit Sharma will score 2 huge centuries in the tournament. other times he will be mediocre.

Kohli and Rahane are the main pillars of the line up and they will have to have a partnership every time they bat.

Raina's has always played a very important role in this line up. But now, in absence of Yuvi he has that extra responsibility. 

He will have to build partnerships, rotate strike, and also go for the kill by slogging. The more he stays on the wicket ... the better life he makes Dhoni.

I was happy to see the way Ashwin bowled. It was vintage spin bowling I saw after long time. 

Mohit Sharma bowled well and maintained pressure on Pakistan, Hence it gave Yadav enough time to have another go. I have a lot of expectations from Md Shami .. and he needs to keep the pressure off him and start expressing himself. 

I think he might soon be replaced by Bhuvaneshwar. Bhuvi adds more value to the team and an extra dimension of swing and control.

Jadeja went abt his bowling in a quiet manner.... not too much drama .. not too many wickets and most importantly .. not too many wickets as well. His contribution is always helpful.

Another player I really wanna see shining is Stuart Binny, not just for this world cup. But also for next 4 5 years. I think he can be the genuine seam all rounder that we need in the team.

I am sure he will get his chance when India play in NZ. and I am sure he will make is mark.

So, as Sunday approaches, and we get prepared to take India vs SA, I would quietly be hoping that India does not take that game seriously and lets it pass by... making its way to Adelaide rather than to Wellington.

What happens after it depends on how the day goes by

Figures Crossed